In a dramatic policy U-turn, US President Donald Trump on Friday granted a 60-day waiver on provisions of the recently signed Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, postponing the imposition of tariffs of up to 100% on countries importing Russian crude oil. The executive order, which keeps the waivers in place until further notice, comes just days after the law’s October 18 trigger date and follows a flurry of behind-the-scenes negotiations involving US allies and major energy importers.
The Graham Act, signed into law on September 18, would have not only allowed duties of up to 500% on Russian goods entering the US but also enabled the administration to slap punitive tariffs—up to 100% ad valorem—on imports from the world’s top five buyers of Russian oil, namely India and China. The move sent shockwaves through global markets, with trade experts warning that implementing these sanctions could have severely disrupted energy supplies and sent prices soaring.
India in the Crosshairs
India, the world’s No. 2 importer of Russian crude after China, stood to be hit especially hard. Despite earlier US claims that India had agreed to wind down Russian oil purchases, the South Asian giant remains heavily reliant on Moscow for its energy needs. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who will visit Mumbai and Jamnagar later this week to meet with Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh Ambani and other business leaders, explained that the administration needed the 60-day window to carefully study the impact on both the US and global economies. Rubio pointed to India’s role as a vital US ally, as well as mounting pressure on global energy supplies—from conflicts in the Middle East to Houthi disruptions in the shipping lanes—as factors in the decision.
Trade analysts suggest the waiver could also boost the chances of a US-India trade deal, removing a significant source of uncertainty. The suspension of these tariffs has also been closely watched in Kazakhstan and other major Russian oil importers, who could have been swept up in the sanctions dragnet.
Wider Strategic Shift
The administration’s move marks a major reversal from more than four years of steadily escalating US sanctions on Russia, reflecting what insiders describe as a shift to prioritize global economic stability and energy security over confrontation. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned the waiver is a “reward for Putin,” the Trump administration insists that the pause is necessary to avoid a global energy price shock and to maintain leverage in ongoing trade and security talks—especially as the US eyes expanded Abraham Accords in Central Asia.
The next two months will be pivotal as the US monitors the global response and weighs whether to reinstate the sanctions. For now, the world watches as the Trump administration attempts to walk the tightrope between punishing Russia and protecting the fragile global energy balance.
