The Indian stock market ended last Friday on a high note, setting the stage for cautious optimism as the new week begins. The BSE Sensex climbed 582 points, or 0.72%, to finish at 81,790.12, while the Nifty 50 surged 183 points (0.74%) to close at 25,078. Both indices were buoyed by robust performances in banking and IT stocks, with private banks like Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank leading the charge. The Bank Nifty index also saw an impressive jump, advancing 515.6 points (0.93%) to settle at 56,104.85.
Technical Strength and Volatility in Focus
Market sentiment was further strengthened as the Nifty 50 decisively broke through the important psychological and technical resistance level of 25,000, a move that analysts at Ashika Institutional Equities say signals a positive market structure. Momentum indicators showed moderate strength, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) standing at 55.26 for the Nifty 50 and 54.64 for the Sensex—comfortably below the overbought threshold of 70. Both indices closed above all major moving averages (20/50/100/200 EMAs), supporting a bullish outlook.
However, volatility saw a slight uptick. The India VIX, a measure of market volatility, increased by 0.13 points (1.32%) to 10.19, though it remains well below the “danger zone” of 15, suggesting that market turbulence is still subdued for now.
Outlook: Resistance Ahead, Q2 Earnings in Focus
Looking ahead to Tuesday, signals from the Gift Nifty (formerly SGX Nifty) point to a cautious start, with the index trading at around 25,158—a slight discount to the Nifty futures’ previous close. Derivatives data reveal the highest call writing at the 25,100 strike, indicating strong resistance at that level, while maximum put open interest is clustered at 25,000, suggesting this will serve as a key support area in the near term.
Market direction in the coming sessions is likely to be dictated by Q2 earnings releases and global cues, with sectors such as banking, IT, capital goods, and consumption expected to remain in focus. As the Nifty 50 formed a strong bull candle and continued to trade above its major moving averages, stock-specific action is expected to dominate, especially as India’s Q2 results season unfolds.
With global indices like the Nikkei and Nasdaq hitting record highs and US futures trading in the green during Indian market hours, the overall mood is tentatively optimistic. Still, investors are advised to keep a close eye on resistance near 25,100 and support at 25,000 as the week progresses.
