Coal India, the state-backed coal behemoth, announced its Q4FY26 results late Monday, posting a strong 11.2% year-on-year increase in net profit to Rs 10,839.18 crore. Revenue for the quarter also climbed 5.8% to Rs 46,490.03 crore. The numbers, which topped most analyst forecasts, sent Coal India shares up more than 4% in Tuesday’s early trading on the NSE, even as broader markets wobbled under pressure from surging oil prices and weakness in bank stocks.
Analyst Expectations Outpaced
Despite a marginal 0.5% year-on-year increase in coal production to 238.9 million tonnes (mt), dispatches actually fell by 1.1% to 199.1 mt—reflecting softer demand from thermal power plants and stiffer competition from merchant miners. Still, Coal India managed to shine where it mattered: profitability. Adjusted EBITDA (excluding overburden removal) soared 46% quarter-on-quarter to Rs 11,460 crore, up 2.1% year-on-year, according to Emkay Global, thanks to higher e-auction realizations and improved offtake as summer power demand surged.
Morgan Stanley analysts had penciled in just a 6% rise in EBITDA, but Coal India’s 12% year-on-year jump clearly beat the street. While fuel supply agreement (FSA) volumes fell 4% year-on-year, overall earnings were buoyed by increased inventory and strong e-auction prices, partly driven by firm international coal prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Stock Recovers, But Not at Peak
Coal India’s share price has been on a tear since November 2025, rising 25.5% to Rs 452 apiece. Still, it remains about 17% under its August 2024 peak of Rs 543. The Q4 beat and ongoing expectations for robust summer demand have helped buoy sentiment, even as the company faces longer-term questions about market share and competition.
Across the broader market, benchmarks SENSEX and NIFTY50 both slipped during the session, pressured by higher Brent crude (hovering around $110/barrel) and concerns over banking sector provisioning. But Coal India’s outperformance stood out on an otherwise lackluster day for Indian equities.
